by Hazel Anne Mariposa » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:04 am
ON TRUMP, SOLEIMANI, IRAN AND THOSE MISSILES
[1] Did US President Donald J. Trump do the right thing in ordering the successful assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani?
I don't know.
[2] Then why do you care about it?
I care about it because it may drastically affect Philippine Interests, and I care about it only in as far as Philippine Interests are concerned.
Any comments that I may have posted in the recent past are made out of sheer curiosity.
[3] What exact Philippine Interests are involved in this issue?
Philippine Interests that may be affected by the current US-Iran tiff include, but may not be limited to:
(a) Safety of Overseas Filipinos in the Middle East
-- Pres. Rody Duterte already ordered the repatriation of Iraq OFWs. Aside from the threat to their safety, we also know that significant amounts of public funds are needed to effect this, funds that could have been diverted to other purposes had there been no significant levels of conflict.
(b) Oil Prices, which directly affect the Philippine Economy
-- no explanation needed
(c) Stability of trade routes, as these affect the safety of Filipino seamen and the PH economy.
-- not just oil, but all other goods that pass through the Middle East. For one, lots of container ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the Arab Peninsula, and also the Suez Canal between the Arab Peninsula and Egypt.
(d) The risk of a wide-scale war that may involve the Philippines
-- Generously assuming that humanity-at-large knows better than to replicate WW2 and based on what limited stuff I know about diplomacy, I don't want another Bush-ist "Either you're with us or against us." scenario.
Moreover, wars inevitably kill innocents as collateral damage, and I as a Human Being don't like innocent people dying. Wars should be fought only when necessary, and I don't think this one is, considering that Iran was receptive to diplomacy as evidenced by the 2015 Nuclear Arms Deal that Trump unfortunately ignored.
[4] But according to the US, the Iranians are terrorists!
That's their problem, not mine. They can fix their problem if they want, for as long as they don't significantly involve Philippine Interests. The same goes for Iran and their view of their situation.
[5] Will the situation escalate?
Well, there are signs that it fortunately won't. Iran retaliated by bombing two US bases in Iraq but with the colatilla that it's even with them and the US after that (at least, in as far as Soleimani).
Meanwhile, Trump appears to be receptive to the Iranian "de-escalative escalation", by saying "All is well" and announcing no American casualties, i.e. no reason yet for another strike.
[6] There must be dead Americans after the two strikes!
That's possible. But even if there were, the Americans would likely stick with their zero-casualty announcement if only to avoid a war that is unlikely to be supported by Congress (or at least, the Democrat majority in the House of Representatives).
Iran, meanwhile, is fully aware that it cannot win a war against the United States, so when Iran said it's satisfied with the revenge on the two bases, then I think they mean that they really don't want further escalation.
Besides, Iran, as far as their point of view, may have also scored another (relatively minor) point: they also managed to humiliate Trump by making it appear that Trump started a fight he can't finish. I guess that's political pogi point for the Iranian Government vis-a-vis its domestic audience.
P.S. May major strategic victory daw for Iran daw because Iraq parliament voted to evict USA from Iraq soil. Ok, congrats Iran, but it's not an immediate concern for a Filipino like me.
[7] Are Philippine interests affected?
Yes, but not as significantly as feared.
[8] What do we do now?
As for PRRD's repatriation order, I think it's best to let him decide when's the right time to lift it. We as pedestrians have little information about what's going on backstage, so l'll trust PRRD's judgment on this.
[9] I am a Middle East OFW, what should I do?
Ask the Philippine Mission nearest you (Embassy, Consulate, or POLO) about the best course of action. Follow DFA, POEA, DOLE, PCOO pages to keep yourselves updated.
P.S. Wag masyado doon sa PCOO kasi alam niyo naman na maraming inutil doon.
[10] Should Trump be impeached?
For now, that's a problem for the Americans, not ours.